Aug 12: India's China reliance, the urban Hobosexual hustle

Good morning! Picture this: you’re at a chill dinner in Tampa, passing the butter naan, when Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir casually drops, "We’ll blow up an Indian dam with 10 missiles if the Indus Waters Treaty stays suspended." Just your regular 'pass the chicken, threaten the neighbour' dinner banter. And if you thought the vibe got awkward, worry not—Munir then compared India to a "shining Mercedes coming on a highway like a Ferrari” and Pakistan to a “dump truck full of gravel.” Self-roast so strong, even the tandoor was blushing. We're no experts, but if your best flex is “I’m the dump truck, bro,” maybe it’s time to dump it and walk away?

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 6 mins.

India's equity benchmarks started the week on a positive note, driven by post-earnings gains in State Bank of India and Tata Motors. Investors bought stocks after six consecutive weeks of losses while awaiting U.S.-Russia talks.

Home prices are surging. In 13 major Indian cities, property values have risen up to 14% in the past year, with another 6.5% increase expected in 2025. It’s not just luxury buyers feeling the squeeze—rents are climbing too. For many urban dwellers, living alone or upgrading to a larger space is becoming unrealistic. As housing gets tougher, some turn to an unexpected solution: urban hobosexuality. The term may sound cheeky, but it describes people who enter or stay in relationships mainly for a roof over their head or to split costs, often with one partner paying more.

From Internet Slang to Metro Reality: Originally Western internet slang, “hobosexual” (dating for shelter) now fits urban India, especially in Mumbai, Delhi, and Bengaluru, where rents are sky-high. A 2025 Deloitte survey found that over half of India’s millennials and Gen Z live paycheck to paycheck. In metros, rent can eat up 40–50% of monthly income, with Mumbai renters spending nearly 48% just to keep a roof overhead. Add in the loneliness of city life, cultural pressure to “settle down,” and fast-moving dating norms, and it’s easy to see how emotional connection and practical arrangements can overlap.

The Pattern: Often, one partner covers most housing costs while the other contributes in smaller ways, like running errands, doing chores, or simply companionship. On the surface, it looks like any other relationship. Beneath that, there’s sometimes an imbalance in who benefits most. For some, it’s a temporary fix until finances improve; for others, it becomes a long-term arrangement.

Bigger Than the Buzzword: Hobosexuality is as much about economics as it is about romance. As homes get pricier and cities feel more isolating, love and logistics are increasingly sharing the same address—and sometimes, that’s just how urban life works.

Since the 2014 launch of ‘Make in India,’ the goal has been clear: boost manufacturing, create jobs, and reduce reliance on imports—especially from China. Yet, India’s trade deficit with China hit a record $99.2 billion in 2024-25, driven by surging imports of electronics, solar modules, and batteries. Exports to China have declined sharply, indicating a growing imbalance. Even products assembled in India, such as smartphones, still depend heavily on Chinese components, with only a small fraction of value added locally.

China’s Manufacturing Edge: China’s manufacturing edge comes from decades of building a tightly integrated industrial ecosystem. While India excels in software and services, it has not matched China’s scale in manufacturing, forcing many Indian companies to import crucial parts and technology. Efforts like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme have led to gains in electronics and solar modules, but manufacturing’s share of GDP is now below 14%, lower than when ‘Make in India’ began.

Policy Hurdles and Innovation Shortfalls: Border tensions and security measures, such as bans on Chinese apps and tightened investment rules, have complicated supply chains, sometimes slowing India’s localisation efforts. At the same time, Indian companies invest far less in research and development compared to global peers, slowing progress in key sectors like electric vehicle batteries and semiconductors. Many startups focus on consumer apps rather than deep tech, hindered by complex regulations and uneven policy support.

Joint Ventures and Strategic Dilemmas: Some Indian manufacturers are softening their stance, exploring joint ventures with Chinese firms to boost capacity. This shift, however, is controversial. While deeper integration may accelerate manufacturing growth, critics warn it risks increasing dependency and undermining India’s strategic autonomy.

The Road Ahead: India faces a delicate balancing act. To realize the ‘Make in India’ vision, boosting R&D, promoting advanced manufacturing, and building resilient supply chains are critical. Managing China’s role carefully, while diversifying trade partnerships, will be key to turning ambition into reality without compromising long-term strategic interests.

Tariff Play Faces Backlash: Trump's 50% tariff on Indian goods has triggered backlash, with business leaders and Modi supporters calling for a boycott of US brands like Apple and Amazon. The move could sting, as many affluent Indian consumers view these American labels as a status symbol.

Export Squeeze: India’s Finance Ministry confirms the new 25% US reciprocal tariff will hit about 55% of Indian exports, impacting sectors like textiles and gems but sparing pharma. Analysts warn that this could cut GDP growth by up to 1.1%, forcing the government into damage control mode.

Global Mineral Hunt: The Indian government is likely to amend its mining laws to buy critical mineral assets abroad using a ₹6,000 crore national fund. The plan aims to secure vital supply chains and will allow the sale of unused, low-grade mineral dumps from existing mines.

Indo-Chinese Tie-up: Amid ongoing trade friction with Washington, India is easing the path for electronics joint ventures with China. The move is seen as vital for accessing Chinese tech to boost local manufacturing of key components like displays and batteries.

Chinese automakers continue to ship cars to Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, despite ongoing attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen. Other automakers, wary of the risks, opt for the longer and more expensive trip around Africa. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, at least 14 car-carrier ships sailed from Chinese ports to Europe through the Red Sea and Suez Canal each month. These voyages persist despite drone strikes and gunfire attacks by the Houthis, who claim their campaign supports Palestinians in the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Why the Risk: Shipping through the Red Sea saves 14 to 18 days per round trip compared to the Africa route, reducing costs by several hundred dollars per vehicle. These savings are vital for Chinese automakers competing in the European market against Japanese, Korean, and European brands that rely on the safer, longer route.

China’s Possible Deal with Houthis: Maritime experts believe China may have reached an understanding with the Houthis or their Iranian backers to exempt Chinese car carriers from attacks. While most commercial vessels avoid the Red Sea, Chinese carmakers like BYD and SAIC Motor have recently deployed some of the world’s largest car carriers through this route. These ships can transport up to 5,000 cars worth over $100 million per trip.

Official and Geopolitical Context: China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated its role in easing tensions but hasn’t addressed the specific issue of car carriers. China’s strong economic ties with Iran, including major oil imports, reflect its strategic interests in the region. The Houthis have vowed to continue targeting ships linked to Israel, as shown in the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader in 2023 and its subsequent Israeli airstrike. Despite these risks, Chinese automakers’ strategic calculations favor the shorter, cost-saving Red Sea route, reflecting a complex balance of commerce and geopolitics. 

Big Brother Takes a Cut: Nvidia and AMD will give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from advanced AI chip sales to China, in exchange for export licenses after a Trump-era ban. While this allows shipments to resume, critics worry it prioritizes revenue over national security. Nvidia made $17 billion from China last year, AMD $6.2 billion, showing China’s importance as a market.

Tesla Enters UK Energy Race: Tesla is seeking a license to supply electricity to households and businesses in the U.K., aiming to compete with established energy firms as early as next year. The company already runs Tesla Electric in Texas, offering energy optimisation and buy-back services.

Australia to Recognise Palestinian State at UN: Australia will formally recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, joining countries like the UK, France, and Canada. The decision follows assurances from the Palestinian Authority to demilitarise, hold elections, and recognise Israel’s right to exist, excluding Hamas from governance.

Pak PM’s Japan Visit: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is set to visit Japan in early October, marking the first visit by a sitting Pakistani PM in 20 years. The visit, following a special invitation from the Japanese government, is expected to boost cooperation and trade ties.

Google vs CCI: Google is facing a legal battle with India's competition watchdog, the Competition Commission of India (CCI), over claims that it abused its Android dominance and forced app pre-installs and unfair billing. The Supreme Court case could reshape India's digital ecosystem after a November 2025 hearing.

Betting on Bharat: BlackRock's COO, Robert L Goldstein, sees global chaos as a "relative positive" for India. Goldstein is bullish on India’s multi-decade growth story, driven by a rising middle class that will fuel domestic consumption, creating massive, long-term investment opportunities independent of global turmoil.

ISRO's Satellite Ambitions: ISRO plans to triple India’s satellite fleet from 56 to nearly 150 within three years to meet soaring data demand and match global space capabilities by 2040. India will also launch a 6,500 kg US satellite soon.

Delhi’s Dog Crisis: After a Supreme Court order of mass sterilisation and permanent housing of stray dogs in Delhi-NCR, Delhi’s civic body says its target of sterilising 70% of strays is impossible with current facilities. Of the 6 lakh strays, only 1.25 lakh can be sterilised yearly with the current capacity, far short of the 4.5 lakh needed.

THAT’S ALL FOR TODAY!

Got thoughts? We love to hear it. Just reply to this email.

Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe via ✉️ thedesidispatch.com

Not on the WhatsApp community yet? Join it here.

Thank you and keep reading!🚀