July 24: India-UK sign free trade deal, Nepal comes calling

Good Morning 🇮🇳

In a real-life crossover between Catch Me If You Can and CID, UP Police busted the “embassies” of non-existent countries, i.e. West Arctica, Saborga, Poulvia, and Lodonia, operating out of Ghaziabad, by a man named Harsh Vardhan Jain. From fake passports to flashy plaques, the conman was offering job placements to fictional nations. Moral of the story? If someone from Ghaziabad offers you diplomatic immunity, maybe double-check the globe.

Now, let’s get into the dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 4.5 mins.

The Indian market indices rallied strongly in trade on Wednesday by positive movements in the Asian markets, followed by Japan’s trade agreement with the US. 

India and the UK are poised to sign a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that can redefine economic ties between the nations and significantly shift trade dynamics. Under the new agreement nearly 90% of UK exports to India — including aerospace components, Scotch whisky, gin, cosmetics, salmon, chocolates, biscuits, and medical devices will become cheaper.

Big movers: Whiskeys, wheels and work

India’s export picture: 99% of Indian exports, including textiles, footwear, auto components, gems and jewellery, furniture, and chemicals, will be covered under the FTA and get free access to UK markets. Many of these products currently face tariffs ranging from 4% to 16% in the UK.

Zoom out: Bilateral trade between the two nations was already at a historic $55 billion in 2024. With this FTA, trade is now expected to double in next five years.

According to a third party report, Google Play and Android generated an estimated Rs 4 lakh crore in revenue for app publishers and the wider Indian economy in 2024. For context that’s ~2% of India’s GDP. We’re stunned.

India is an Android world: Android’s dominance in India is no surprise — but its grip is staggering, with nearly 95% market share. According to the report, ~72% of surveyed users claimed their first access to the internet was on an Android device and 85% say their Android phone is one of the main ways they access digital public services.

Digital developers and builders: According to Google, India has the second largest number of active developers on Google Play across the world, contributing over 10 lakh developer jobs in 2024. The platforms together support 35lakh+ direct, indirect and spillover jobs.

Building for the world: Indian developers on Android are building not just for Indians but for the world , with ~80% serving global audiences through their apps. The total app downloads from the Play Store for Indian developers stood at 720 crore, with 120 crore downloads coming from overseas users.

With AI now making it easier than ever to build apps, and cheap data, affordable smartphones, and a growing appetite for digital services across India - we think there’s a lot more development and a lot more money on the cards.

Nepal PM's India visit: Nepal’s PM KP Sharma Oli finally confirmed his visit to India on Sep 16-17, after shifting the dates thrice, and 14 months after he became PM. The India-Nepal relationship has been a bit on the rocks, since China started successfully courting Nepal. Unusually, PM Oli’s first visit as PM was to China in December last year though traditionally India has been first call. He, however, had not got an invitation from Delhi. The Pancheshwar-Mahakali Treaty, a bi-national hydropower project, whose Detailed Project Report has been pending since 1996, is a key agenda for the visit. Experts are hoping September will help mend relations.

PayTM turns profitable: PayTM's parent company One97 Communications reported its first-ever net profit of Rs 122.5 crore in the first quarter of FY26. This is a huge turnaround from last year's loss, driven by cost-cutting and strong payment growth. This comes at a good time for PayTM, as there were reports on merchants in Bengaluru refusing UPI payments after they received GST notices.

Eternal's profit plunge: Eternal's Q1 2025 net profit plunged 90% to Rs 25 crore despite a 70% surge in revenue. Notably, Blinkit's order value surged 55% year over year and surpassed Zomato's food delivery order value for the first time - becoming the leading B2C segment under Eternal.

“The biggest most beautiful trade deal ever”: US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, calling it the "largest trade deal ever." He claimed Japan would be investing a massive $550 billion in the US and expects America to get 90% of the profits. The deal also includes a 15% tariff on Japanese goods entering the US. Markets and Japanese auto stocks responded positively to the news as tariffs were lower than the 25% that had been threatened.

It’s all about the Rice and Cars: Japan agreed to open its markets to American vehicles, rice and agricultural goods in response to lower tariffs - a big win for US.

Project Deadline: With the new reciprocal tariff deadline of Aug 1st fast approaching, the White House has been so far able to use the pressure to broker agreements with the UK, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan and a preliminary accord with China. These deals signal a new baseline tariff of 10-20%.

The focus is back on the India-US trade deal now which remains elusive given the disagreements on Agriculture and Diary. US’s rice win over Japan seems particularly relevant now.

Google combats China-linked YouTube channels:  Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) updated that it has terminated nearly 2,600 YouTube channels linked to China-backed influence operations spreading propaganda in Chinese and English. 

German warfare ft cockroaches: Germany plans on tripling its defence budget to nearly €162 billion by 2029. AI robots, drones, and "spy cockroaches" could be part of its cutting-edge future warfare tools, driven by start-up innovation and a changed mindset after the Russia-Ukraine war.  

Alibaba’s latest coder AI: Alibaba has launched Qwen3-Coder, its most powerful open-source AI model for software development. With 480 billion parameters, it rivals GPT-4 and Claude in code generation, boosting the company’s AI ambitions with a focus on developer tools and agentic coding.

Victorious Venus: 45-year-old Venus Williams became the oldest player to win a Women’s Tennis Association match since 2004, beating world No. 35 Peyton Stearns 6-3, 6-4 at the Washington Open on Tuesday.  

Two former London financial traders, Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo, originally jailed for manipulating benchmark interest rates during the 2008 financial crisis, have had their convictions overturned by the UK Supreme Court.

They had argued that they were wrongly prosecuted for what were normal commercial practices in order to appease public anger towards the banks over the ‘08 financial crisis. Seems like the Supreme Court UK agreed.

Read the detailed report here 

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