July 3: 1 Lakh crores, US-India deal drama, and cab fare surge

Good Morning 🇮🇳 

What does turning 80 and jumping out of a plane from 10,000 feet have in common? Absolutely nothing. BUT, Dr. Shraddha Chauhan decided to change that by becoming the oldest woman to skydive on her 80th birthday. Despite suffering from vertigo and prolapsed spinal discs, she jumped from a height of 10,000 feet with her son Brigadier Shekhawat. Take that, Tom Cruise.

Now, let’s get into the dispatch! 🚀 

Today’s reading time is 6mins

MARKETS 🔔🐂🐻

Market saw a bit a of red on Tuesday due to mixed global cues and investors being cautious with the US tariff deadline ahead.  

Trade⚖️
US-India trade: The 20% dream differential drama

You’ve been reporting this for a while - so what’s up? Yes we know! Here’s the deal - India and the US are deep in trade talks, with India pushing for a sweet deal: a tariff difference of up to 20% compared to what the US charges China. This differential is super important to be able to compete and compensate for India’s structural downsides — infrastructural bottlenecks, logistics woes, high interest cost, the cost of doing business, corruption, etc.

Will US agree? US is driving hard for market access in politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy. With Indian officials recognizing the importance of this differential - India may be becoming more open to cutting tariffs on some goods/sectors. 

Does this work for India? There is a growing realisation that cutting tariffs across some good, especiall, intermediate goods, might be a net positive for India. There is also more openness on GM (genetically modified) food, higher receptiveness for lower tariffs in industrial goods, and headroom to import more from the US (especially in crude, defence equipment and nuclear). All in all, the Government is saying - chal sakta hai - and finding a way to manage the “Trump” card.

Long game: Baseline tariffs are the reality now, with India trying to negotiate somewhere between the 10% to 26%. What’s key is to ensure that the effective duty on Chinese products is significantly higher in industries where Indian producers are reasonably competitive.

Doosra by Trump: Apparently DT has greenlit a new law that proposes 500% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil to get Putin back on the negotiating table. India and China buy 70% of Russian oil. Bas kar yaar Trump.

Economy 🇮🇳🏭📦
ELI gets 1 Lakh crore, RDI gets 1 Crore Lakhs

In a move that made us hum “Dene wala jab bhee deta, deta chhappar phad ke” the union cabinet on Tuesday approved ₹1 Lakh crores each for Employment-linked incentives (ELI) scheme and Research, Development, and Innovation (RDI) scheme.

What is the Employment-linked incentives (ELI) scheme? This is a scheme focused on supporting employment generation, enhancing employability and social security with a special focus on manufacturing:

• Incentive to First Time Employees: One-month EPF wage (incentive) up to Rs 15,000 for first time employees with salaries up to Rs 1 lakh per annum. 

• Support to Employers: Incentivize employers up to Rs 3000 per month for two years, for each additional employee (earning upto Rs. 1L per annum) with sustained employment for at least six months. Incentives extended to the 3^rd and 4^th years for manufacturing sector.

What is the Research, Development, and Innovation (RDI) scheme? This scheme aims to provide long-term financing at low or zero interest rates to spur private sector investment:

• Encourage the private sector to scale up RDI in sunrise domains and in other sectors relevant for economic security, strategic purpose, and self-reliance

• Finance transformative projects

• Support acquisition of critical/strategic technologies

• Facilitate setting up of a Deep-Tech Fund of Funds

For nerds like us interested in knowing more about how this can help the Deep-Tech sector, read this.  

BUSINESS INDIA
DHANDA HAI YEH!

• L&T forays into green hydrogen: L&T launched Panipat Green Hydrogen Pvt Ltd, a new subsidiary, marking its entry into the green hydrogen sector. The company is proactively exploring this space in the backdrop of GOI championing green hydrogen as a clean energy source, backed by initiatives like the National Green Hydrogen Mission and pilot projects exploring its use in transportation.

• SEBI in action: India’s market regulator, SEBI, is going full “influencer police” with “daya” Google and “ACP” Telegram to crack down on unregistered "finfluencers”. They aim to stop misleading investment guidance before your portfolio gets ghosted by bad advice.  

• Real estate boom continues: India's real estate sector keeps growing, thanks to strong projects, stable interest rates, and new launches. Mumbai notably saw record-high property registrations in June 2025, worth ₹173 billion. Unfortunately though, the average price per home also rose by 3% to ₹1.49 Cr ONLY.

• Telangana factory blast tragedy: The death toll in the Sigachi plant blast has risen to 38, with 11 people still reported missing. An FIR filed has alleged that the company had been using outdated machinery.

WORLD: BUSINESS AND GEOPOLITICS 🌍
KYA CHAL RAHA HAI?

• Chutti @ OpenAI: ChatGPT maker OpenAI is shutting down for a week so staff can recharge after intense 80-hour workweeks. This comes at the back of Meta’s aggressive poaching attempts for OpenAI’s talent.

• Dalai Lama will choose Dalai Lama: The Dalai Lama confirmed he'll have a successor, chosen by his trust, not China. This ends speculation about the 600-year-old institution amidst Beijing's plan to have its successor from China approved by their government. 

• Microsoft to do another round of layoffs: Microsoft plans to lay off over 9,000 employees worldwide, ~4% of its workforce. It is their largest round of job cuts since 2023 which affected 6000 employees. 

• Alibaba's $7 billion boost: China's Alibaba launched a massive $7 billion e-commerce subsidy program on Taobao (Chinese e-commerce site it owns) to boost spending, fight deflation amidst economic challenges in China.

• Iran suspends cooperation with IAEA: Following Israel/US’s attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran during which IAEA remained silent, Iran halted collaboration with the UN’s nuclear monitoring body after its President approved the legislation.

• Diddy acquitted on most serious charges but denied bail: Music mogul Diddy who has been in prison for nearly a year on charges of racketeering and sex trafficking was found not-guilty by the jury on those charges, but guilt of transportation to engage in prostitution related to his ex-partner Casandra Ventura and another woman referred to as "Jane". He was denied bail and will continue to remain in prison for now.

Aur Batao: News from across India 📰

• Surge in cab fare: In not so good news for the savings gods - the government has allowed cab aggregators such as Uber, Ola and Rapido to charge up to 2X (vs. the 1.5x it is now) surge pricing during peak hours.

• Nationwide strike: Over 27 lakh power sector employees will strike nationwide on July 9 against UP government’s move to privatize two discoms in the state. The engineers' body that has called for the strike alleges that the Power Corporation and some big officials of the government are in collusion with selected private houses to sell these assets at throwaway prices.

• No ‘Made in China’ in military: Ministry of Defence is set to launch a comprehensive review of military procurement to identify Chinese-origin components and assess vulnerabilities within the defence supply chain. Strict guidelines are in place that prohibit use of Chinese parts in military hardware, but some companies may still be sourcing from China.

• Rain fury in Himachal: Torrential rains, flash floods, and landslides have claimed 51 lives and left 22 missing in Himachal Pradesh. Over 100 people are injured due to the monsoon devastation.

• Terror operation in J&K: An encounter broke out between terrorists and security forces in a dense forested region of Kishtwar in J&K during search and cordon operation.

• Return of the bikes in Karnataka? Hopes for bike taxis in Karnataka are up! Centre's revised guidelines allow non-transport bikes for hire, potentially ending the state's previous ban of June 16. 

Sports and Entertainment

• India’s new sports policy and Olympic bid: The Union Cabinet approved the National Sports Policy 2025 on July 1. It lays out a strategic roadmap to transform India into a leading sports nation and increasing chances of hosting the 2036 Olympic Games. India also bid to host the 2036 Olympic Games with Ahmedabad officially put forward as host city

• Divyanshi's golden smash: Divyanshi Bhowmick won a historic gold in U-15 Girls' Singles at Asian Youth TT Championships in Uzbekistan, defeating China's Zhu Qihi 4-2, ending India's 36-year wait

• Blue tigresses roar: India's women's football team beat Iraq 5-0 on Wednesday in the AFC Asian Cup Qualifiers, with goals from five different players. The team secured the top spot in Group B and eliminated Iraq.

• Djoker charges on, Coco crashes out: Novak Djokovic battled a stomach bug to defeat Alexandre Muller 6-1, 6-7(7), 6-2, 6-2 in a tough 3-hour, 19-minute match to reach Wimbledon's second round. He credited his doctor’s ‘miracle pills’; Coco Gauff - French open champion - crashed out in R1

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