Newsletter Edition: June 24, 2025

Good Morning India 🇮🇳 

Sholay is making a comeback after 5 decades, but this time with original ending (Gabbar is killed by Thakur instead of being arrested by the police + other uncut scenes). And no, it’s not dropping on OTT— it’s premiering in Bologna, Italy. Is baar na Holi, na goli — sirf ravioli.

Now, let’s get into the dispatch! 🚀 

Today’s reading time is 6 mins.

Markets 🔔🐂🐻

Markets caught a serious case of the Mondays… and the blues. Except it was all red

• The downward trend was due to Global crises, the sole reason remains the Middle East tension, as the US got involved in the Israel-Iran conflict.

• The top gainers for yesterday were Zee Ent (+12.50%), Chennai Petro (+11.00%), while the top losers were LT Foods (-6.30%) and Ola Electric (-5.97%).

Climate 🌍🌡️
Asia’s weather wake-up call

What Happened? 
Asia is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, triggering extreme weather, economic strain, and ecosystem damage, says the WMO's new State of the Climate in Asia 2024 report. 2024 was the warmest/second warmest year on record for the region (depending on which dataset) with prolonged and widespread heatwaves. Globally, the warming trend between 1991 and 2024 was almost double that observed during the 1961-1990 period.

Concerning news

• Oceans Are Boiling: Asia’s sea surface temperatures rose 0.24°C per decade, nearly double the global mean rate of 0.13°C. In 2024, marine heatwaves hit 15 million sq. km (1.5 times the size of China). The hardest hit: the northern Indian Ocean, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. 

• Sea Levels and Shrinking Glaciers: Sea levels along the Indian and Pacific Oceans rose faster than global averages from 1993 to 2024. Asia’s glaciers especially in the Himalayas and the Tian Shan range, have been steadily shrinking. Out of 24 monitored glaciers, 23 reported mass losses in 2023–24. The Urumqi Glacier No.1 in Tian Shan recorded its worst mass balance since 1959. 

• Weather on Overdrive: Extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and droughts wreaked havoc in 2024. These led to massive floods, landslides, and crop losses, deepening water insecurity and driving up the humanitarian toll. WMO warns these shifts in climate indicators like surface temperature, glacier loss, and sea level rise will have serious consequences for economies, societies, and ecosystems. 

A Wake-Up Call 
WMO Chief Celeste Saulo calls the toll from extreme weather “unacceptably high.” But there’s a sliver of hope: a case study from Nepal shows early warning systems and local planning help communities brace better for climate shocks. 

Glaciers are vanishing, seas are rising, and extreme weather’s becoming the new normal, how much louder does the planet need to shout before we truly listen? 

Read the full WMO report here

Economy 📈🇮🇳
Business Activity Soars to 14-Month High in June!

What’s the Buzz?
India's private sector business activity surged in June 2025, hitting a 14-month high, according to the HSBC Flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The index climbed to 61.0 from 59.3 in May, exceeding everyone’s expectations and signalling nearly four years of continuous expansion. The best part is, both the manufacturing and services sectors contributed to this robust growth, with manufacturing seeing its best operating conditions since April 2024 and services reaching a 10-month high.

What’s driving and what’s the impact?
This impressive rise is fueled by strong domestic and international demand, leading to a record surge in new export orders, which is the highest since the data collection began in Sept 2014. Manufacturers and service providers are seeing a substantial boost in confidence and activity which will create more jobs. Input costs rose at their slowest pace in 10 months, giving businesses more room to manage pricing, benefiting consumers.

Despite the overall optimism, business confidence, particularly in the services sector, has dipped to its lowest in over two years, due to global tensions and tariffs.

US - India trade deal trouble

The India-US trade deal is facing significant hurdles. The US wants lower duties on genetically modified (GM) agricultural products like maize and soybeans, but India is resisting due to concerns related to health (GM products not allowed under current regulations) and impact on farmers.

• Issue: For the US, a deal without lower duties for its Fram products is “not an option”, while India “can’t expose India’s Agri sector to imports from large US farms - we’re not ready yet”.

• Impact: If no deal is reached by July 9, the US may bring back 26% tariffs on Indian exports - which will have a large impact on domestic exporters.

• Up next: An Indian delegation will travel to Washington soon for further negotiations, with the aim of signing an interim trade agreement

Business India
DHANDA HAI YEH!

• PhonePe plans Big IPO: The Walmart-backed PhonePe is gearing up for a huge IPO, aiming to raise $1.5 billion by August. PhonePe, with 600 million users across 40 million merchants, and processes 310 million daily transactions. The IPO would put company valuation at $15 billion

• PayU's Big Boom: The fintech firm PayU’s India payment revenue surged 12% to ~$0.5 billion in FY25, with overall revenue up 21% to $0.7 billion. However, Pay U’s adjusted EBIT margin is still negative at -7% (still operating at a loss) and this has pushed out its IPO plans.

• Bank’s Slowdown amid Economic Growth: Banks saw just 4.9% Q4 profit growth, a 17-quarter low, due to margin pressure and SBI's profit drop. Private banks' profit fell 2.5%, while public banks grew by 13%. Rate cuts may help.

• India’s AI Boost: India's government now offers a 100% compute subsidy for foundational AI model training under the IndiaAI Mission. To date, four companies (Sarvam, Gnan.AI, GAN.ai and Socket) have been approved to develop foundational models.

World: Business and Geopolitics 🌍
KYA CHAL RAHA HAI? 

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Israel and Iran have agreed to a “complete and total” ceasefire, following 12 days of intense conflict. Announced via Truth Social, Trump said the ceasefire would begin within hours, starting with Iran halting attacks, followed by Israel. However, neither Israel nor Iran has officially confirmed the deal, and regional tensions remain high.

In other news:

• DeepSeek in deep water? A top U.S. official says AI startup DeepSeek is quietly backing China’s military and intel ops, even using shell firms in Southeast Asia to sneak around U.S. chip bans and grab Nvidia’s restricted H100s. DeepSeek allegedly sends user data to Beijing, supports PLA-linked projects, and accessed top-tier chips through backdoor routes.  

• NATO’s 5% Push Meets Some Pushback: NATO allies just agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035. 3.5% on weapons and troops, 1.5% on cyber and logistics backing a long-standing Trump demand. However, the U.S. might not commit, and Spain is calling the target “counterproductive.”  

Aur Batao: News from across India 📰

• DGCA launches 360° Safety Audits: After the Air India crash that killed 241 people, DGCA will conduct wide-ranging audits across airlines, airports, MROs, and training schools to catch systemic gaps before tragedy strikes. Multidisciplinary teams will lead inspections.

• India’s Child Labour Crisis: 27k rescue ops were conducted across India last year freeing 45k children from clutches of exploitation. 90% of these cases were child labour related, with Telangana emerging as worst-affected.

• India’s Astronaut Waits as Axiom-4 Launch Delays: India’s astronaut Shubhanshu Shukla is still stuck in Florida after Axiom-4’s launch got delayed seven times. If successful, Group Captain Shukla will make history as the second Indian to undertake human spaceflight.

• India Clears Jet Route Rumours: India firmly denied social media claims that U.S. jets flew through its airspace to bomb Iran during Operation Midnight Hammer. Press Information Bureau fact check called the reports “fake” and adding that India’s skies weren’t part of the mission. 

• India Preps Fuel Backup Amid Gulf Tensions: After U.S. strikes on Iran and threats to the Strait of Hormuz (which handles 20% of global oil flow), India says it's ready. Oil Minister Hardeep Puri noted India imports under half of its 4.8M barrels/day from the Middle East, and reserves can last weeks. PM Modi also spoke to Iran’s President Pezeshkian about the crisis, urging calm. 

Sports and Entertainment

• Boxing Glory: Indian boxers bagged 7 medals, including 3 gold, to finish atop at the Seychelles National Day Boxing Tournament. Himanshu Sharma and Ashish Mudshaniya registered gold medals

• Hockey Legend Retires: Indian hockey player Lalit Kumar Upadhyay, who was part of two Olympic bronze medal-winning teams, announced his international retirement at age 31 

• Bumrah’s New Achievement: Indian pacer Jaspreet Bumrah made WTC history, becoming the first pacer with 11 five-wicket hauls. He also became the first Asian to claim 150 Test wickets in SENA countries.

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