Nov 20: Consumption Map Is Shifting, Byju’s Bidding War

EA Sports is pulling a full college-kid move with one of their big games: skip a year and hope nobody notices. The annual F1 game cycle is officially taking a pit stop in 2026. Instead of F1 26, players will be handed a paid expansion for F1 25 - so pay for the 2025 logo to turn to 2026. Well, given how many new iPhone versions have been sold because the color was different, EA might just be able to pull this off.

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 6 mins.

The Indian stock market rebounded sharply on Wednesday, snapping a one-day decline. The Sensex jumped 513 points and the Nifty gained 142 points, driven by a robust rally in IT and PSU bank shares.  account of monthly expiry and weak global cues.

Rural Markets Still In The Driver’s Seat: For seven straight quarters, rural India has quietly and steadily powered the country’s FMCG growth story. Even as urban consumption went through its ups and downs, villages delivered consistent volume growth. The latest data shows rural FMCG volumes rising 5.7%, far ahead of urban markets at 1.9%. Affordable packs, strong farm output, better real wages, and improved distribution networks have helped rural India stay resilient. With rural markets accounting for about 38% of India’s FMCG demand, the countryside remains a critical pillar of consumption.

Urban India Begins Its Comeback: But the narrative is now shifting. After several muted quarters, urban demand is showing visible recovery and Morgan Stanley believes this revival is not temporary. A mix of monetary and fiscal tailwinds is finally feeding through the system. Lower interest rates, improved liquidity, and stronger credit transmission are putting more money in the hands of consumers. Add to this the government’s ₹1 trillion income-tax reduction, GST rationalisation, and moderating inflation, and urban households suddenly have more breathing space. Better hiring trends, indicated by an improving Naukri job index, and the prospect of the 8th Pay Commission payouts starting early 2026 are also expected to lift sentiment and spending. The result: the once-lagging urban engine is catching up.

Farming Fortunes Keep Rural Sentiment High: Rural consumption is being further strengthened by a good run in agriculture. India recorded strong kharif and rabi output in 2024, and the favourable rainfall pattern for 2025, supported by healthy reservoir levels and better soil moisture, suggests this momentum may continue. Real rural wages have grown around 3.1% so far in 2025, a significant jump from the 1% growth seen in 2024. Combined with lower inflation expectations and better employment prospects, rural households are feeling more confident about spending.

A Rare ‘Dual Engine’ Phase for India: For the first time in years, India may be entering a phase of synchronised rural and urban growth. FMCG companies are already seeing value growth of 12.9%, buoyed by price increases and recovery in modern trade. If both rural confidence and urban purchasing power continue on this trajectory, India could witness a more stable and broad-based consumption cycle.

A Friendship Tested By A Fallen Edtech Giant: Byju’s, once India’s most celebrated edtech unicorn, is now at the centre of a high-stakes battle between two longtime friends turned rivals, billionaire investors Ranjan Pai and Ronnie Screwvala. As the bankrupt company goes through a court-supervised sale, what began as a professional interest has snowballed into a personal, strategic, and reputational duel.

Two Titans, One Troubled Prize: Ranjan Pai, head of the Manipal Group, and Ronnie Screwvala, media and edtech entrepreneur behind upGrad, have both built empires on very different philosophies. Yet their shared history, mutual respect, and prior collaborations make this clash particularly compelling. Now, with Byju’s on the block under NCLT proceedings, both men have emerged as serious bidders and neither wants to back down. For Pai, the acquisition would mark a return to the education sector at scale. For Screwvala, it fits naturally into his digital learning ambitions. The contrast in their strategies, Pai’s conservative, institution-backed growth vs Screwvala’s aggressive, content-driven scale has amplified the competitive tension.

The Battle Behind Closed Doors: The sale process has intensified as both men try to position their bids as the best path to revive Byju’s. They are not just negotiating numbers, they’re presenting competing visions. Pai is seen as the stabilising force who can restore operational discipline, while Screwvala is pitching a transformation rooted in technology-led learning. Behind the scenes, advisors, investors, and creditors are weighing not just financial viability but credibility and experience. Each bidder believes they’re the right person to rescue Byju’s from years of financial mismanagement, legal battles, and plummeting public trust. The outcome of this rivalry will set the tone for the next phase of India’s edtech sector.

India Books Middle-East Tankers Ahead Of Sanctions: India’s refiners are hiring significantly more tankers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE for late-November to December loading, reflecting a sharp pivot as US sanctions on Russian crude loom. Freight rates are climbing, with very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and Suezmax vessels now in higher demand. This scrambling signals how India’s oil import strategy is shifting rapidly in response to global flows and regulatory pressure.

Reliance Enters Pet-Food Race With “Waggies”: Reliance Consumer Products Ltd (RCPL) has launched a new pet food brand, Waggies, marking its entry into India’s expanding pet-care market with science-led nutrition options. The offering is priced to challenge incumbents, signalling Reliance’s intent to scale quickly in the segment. With pet ownership and premium pet-care demand on the rise, Waggies represents RCPL’s latest consumer push.

RBI’s Inflation Forecasting Under Question: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is facing scrutiny after its inflation predictions repeatedly over-estimated price growth, including a 0.7 percentage-point miss in Q1 - the biggest gap in nearly six years. That has prompted economists to question whether the central bank’s forecasting model remains reliable and whether policy decisions based on it may need recalibration. The critiques suggest RBI may need to revamp its approach amid unexpectedly low inflation prints.

SpiceJet Erases ₹442 Cr Debt With Carlyle Deal: SpiceJet has completed an equity share issue to Carlyle Aviation Partners, cutting ₹442.25 crore from its balance sheet. The airline will also get $79.6 million in maintenance reserves and $9.9 million in maintenance credits under the agreement.

Zomato And MMT Defy Brand Slowdown In India: Growth for India’s top 100 brands has cooled to 6%, down from 19% last year, according to Kantar’s BrandZ report. But companies like Zomato and MakeMyTrip are bucking the trend, Zomato nearly doubled its brand value YoY, while MMT surged by over 45%

PayMate Shutters Middle East Ops Amid Funding Collapse: Fintech company PayMate has shut its operations in the Middle East after its investor, Crimson Ventures, failed to transfer funds for over nine months. The company is now scrambling to raise $20 million as liquidity issues have led to unpaid salaries and key executive exits.

Japan’s Taiwan Remark Sparks Diplomatic Firestorm: Tensions between China and Japan have surged after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan - if it threatened Japan’s survival - could prompt a military response from Tokyo. Beijing reacted sharply, demanding a full retraction and warning of “stern counter-measures,” turning a single statement into a full-blown geopolitical confrontation.

Economic Retaliation Begins To Bite: China has moved swiftly on the economic front, signalling a ban on Japanese seafood imports and issuing travel advisories that encourage Chinese citizens to avoid Japan. Tourism, one of Japan’s most China-dependent sectors, now faces cancellations and financial strain. Cultural and academic ties have also taken a hit, with film releases postponed and events suspended, widening the fallout beyond politics.

Security Stakes Rise In The Region: Tokyo’s shift away from its earlier “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan has heightened regional anxiety. Beyond Taiwan, simmering disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands risk resurfacing as both nations increase coast-guard visibility and military posturing. The standoff exposes how fragile the security landscape remains in East Asia, where even rhetoric can trigger escalation.

A Splashy Market Debut: The Pinkfong Company, best known globally for creating the viral “Baby Shark” phenomenon, made a sensational entry on South Korea’s KOSDAQ market. The stock surged as much as 62% on debut, signalling strong investor appetite for the entertainment brand. The company raised roughly 76 billion won, pricing its IPO at 38,000 won per share, a figure the market quickly rewarded with a sharp opening-day rally.

The Power Of A Global Hit: “Baby Shark” remains one of the most-watched videos in YouTube history, with more than 16 billion views, and Pinkfong has successfully monetised the franchise across digital content, merchandise, music, licensing deals, mobile apps, and live events. The listing showcases how a single viral hit can evolve into a durable global brand, with Pinkfong now operating in more than 20 countries and expanding its character universe.

Investor Sentiment Remains Strong: The rally reflects broader enthusiasm for South Korean media and entertainment stocks, which continue to attract global attention. Analysts say the valuation, about 25x projected 2025 earnings, is competitive compared with peers. Investors appear confident in the company’s ability to scale beyond children’s content alone and deepen its monetisation pipeline across platforms.

Musk Flirts With Politics Again: Elon Musk is re-emerging in Washington. His allies recently hosted a political reunion in Austin, hinting at renewed political ambitions after a hiatus. He’s back in the mix just when his tech empire is asking for more influence. But the big question: does this signal a long-term return or a tactical cameo?

Larry Summers Exits OpenAI Over Epstein Links: Larry Summers has resigned from OpenAI’s board following the release of emails showing he kept up communication with Jeffrey Epstein even after Epstein’s conviction. He stated he’s stepping away from public roles to “rebuild trust and repair relationships.” OpenAI said it respected his decision and thanked him for his contributions.

Saudi Prince Backs U.S. Investment Pledge: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman praised Donald Trump’s efforts toward peace during a White House meeting. He announced plans to increase Saudi investment in the U.S. to nearly $1 trillion. The investment will target sectors like AI, technology, and infrastructure.

Cloudflare Outage May Have Wiped $1.6B In Broker Trades: A major Cloudflare disruption led to a massive dip in trading volume, potentially costing financial services brokers up to $1.6 billion. The outage disrupted real-time data feeds used for high-frequency and retail trading.

Netherlands Lifts Curbs On Chinese Chipmaker: The Dutch government has suspended its intervention in Chinese chipmaker Nexperia, opening the door for resumption of semiconductor exports to China. This move is seen as a strategic shift, allowing Nexperia to serve its global clients again without Dutch regulatory roadblocks.

Trump Demands ABC’s Broadcast License Be Revoked: Donald Trump has called for ABC’s broadcast licenses to be revoked after a White House correspondent pressed him with a critical question about his political ambitions. He accused the network of “dishonest journalism” and claimed they act like a “public enemy.” The demand signals Trump’s deepening war with media outlets that challenge him.

Nitish Kumar Poised For Record 10th Term As Bihar CM: Nitish Kumar is set to become Chief Minister of Bihar for the 10th time after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) elected him as leader of the legislature party. The move secures his leadership ahead of the swearing-in and continues his long-running dominance in the state’s politics.

Russian Oil Surge Into India Ahead Of Sanctions Deadline: India is witnessing a rush of Russian oil shipments as importers race to secure cargoes before a looming sanctions deadline. With buyers in India accelerating orders, vessels are booking slots and crude flows are rising sharply. The move highlights how global fuel markets are adjusting to geopolitical pressure and timing constraints.

Rohit Sharma Slips In ICC ODI Rankings: Rohit Sharma has dropped down to second place in the ICC Men’s ODI batting rankings, ending a brief stint at No. 1. He was overtaken by New Zealand’s Daryl Mitchell, who rose to the top following a strong performance.

THAT’S ALL FOR TODAY!

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