Nov 20: Consumption Map Is Shifting, Byju’s Bidding War

EA Sports is pulling a full college-kid move with one of their big games: skip a year and hope nobody notices. The annual F1 game cycle is officially taking a pit stop in 2026. Instead of F1 26, players will be handed a paid expansion for F1 25 - so pay for the 2025 logo to turn to 2026. Well, given how many new iPhone versions have been sold because the color was different, EA might just be able to pull this off.

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 6 mins.

The Indian stock market rebounded sharply on Wednesday, snapping a one-day decline. The Sensex jumped 513 points and the Nifty gained 142 points, driven by a robust rally in IT and PSU bank shares.  account of monthly expiry and weak global cues.

Rural Markets Still In The Driver’s Seat: For seven straight quarters, rural India has quietly and steadily powered the country’s FMCG growth story. Even as urban consumption went through its ups and downs, villages delivered consistent volume growth. The latest data shows rural FMCG volumes rising 5.7%, far ahead of urban markets at 1.9%. Affordable packs, strong farm output, better real wages, and improved distribution networks have helped rural India stay resilient. With rural markets accounting for about 38% of India’s FMCG demand, the countryside remains a critical pillar of consumption.

Urban India Begins Its Comeback: But the narrative is now shifting. After several muted quarters, urban demand is showing visible recovery and Morgan Stanley believes this revival is not temporary. A mix of monetary and fiscal tailwinds is finally feeding through the system. Lower interest rates, improved liquidity, and stronger credit transmission are putting more money in the hands of consumers. Add to this the government’s ₹1 trillion income-tax reduction, GST rationalisation, and moderating inflation, and urban households suddenly have more breathing space. Better hiring trends, indicated by an improving Naukri job index, and the prospect of the 8th Pay Commission payouts starting early 2026 are also expected to lift sentiment and spending. The result: the once-lagging urban engine is catching up.

Farming Fortunes Keep Rural Sentiment High: Rural consumption is being further strengthened by a good run in agriculture. India recorded strong kharif and rabi output in 2024, and the favourable rainfall pattern for 2025, supported by healthy reservoir levels and better soil moisture, suggests this momentum may continue. Real rural wages have grown around 3.1% so far in 2025, a significant jump from the 1% growth seen in 2024. Combined with lower inflation expectations and better employment prospects, rural households are feeling more confident about spending.

A Rare ‘Dual Engine’ Phase for India: For the first time in years, India may be entering a phase of synchronised rural and urban growth. FMCG companies are already seeing value growth of 12.9%, buoyed by price increases and recovery in modern trade. If both rural confidence and urban purchasing power continue on this trajectory, India could witness a more stable and broad-based consumption cycle.

A Friendship Tested By A Fallen Edtech Giant: Byju’s, once India’s most celebrated edtech unicorn, is now at the centre of a high-stakes battle between two longtime friends turned rivals, billionaire investors Ranjan Pai and Ronnie Screwvala. As the bankrupt company goes through a court-supervised sale, what began as a professional interest has snowballed into a personal, strategic, and reputational duel.

Two Titans, One Troubled Prize: Ranjan Pai, head of the Manipal Group, and Ronnie Screwvala, media and edtech entrepreneur behind upGrad, have both built empires on very different philosophies. Yet their shared history, mutual respect, and prior collaborations make this clash particularly compelling. Now, with Byju’s on the block under NCLT proceedings, both men have emerged as serious bidders and neither wants to back down. For Pai, the acquisition would mark a return to the education sector at scale. For Screwvala, it fits naturally into his digital learning ambitions. The contrast in their strategies, Pai’s conservative, institution-backed growth vs Screwvala’s aggressive, content-driven scale has amplified the competitive tension.

The Battle Behind Closed Doors: The sale process has intensified as both men try to position their bids as the best path to revive Byju’s. They are not just negotiating numbers, they’re presenting competing visions. Pai is seen as the stabilising force who can restore operational discipline, while Screwvala is pitching a transformation rooted in technology-led learning. Behind the scenes, advisors, investors, and creditors are weighing not just financial viability but credibility and experience. Each bidder believes they’re the right person to rescue Byju’s from years of financial mismanagement, legal battles, and plummeting public trust. The outcome of this rivalry will set the tone for the next phase of India’s edtech sector.

India Books Middle-East Tankers Ahead Of Sanctions: India’s refiners are hiring significantly more tankers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE for late-November to December loading, reflecting a sharp pivot as US sanctions on Russian crude loom. Freight rates are climbing, with very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and Suezmax vessels now in higher demand. This scrambling signals how India’s oil import strategy is shifting rapidly in response to global flows and regulatory pressure.

Reliance Enters Pet-Food Race With “Waggies”: Reliance Consumer Products Ltd (RCPL) has launched a new pet food brand, Waggies, marking its entry into India’s expanding pet-care market with science-led nutrition options. The offering is priced to challenge incumbents, signalling Reliance’s intent to scale quickly in the segment. With pet ownership and premium pet-care demand on the rise, Waggies represents RCPL’s latest consumer push.

RBI’s Inflation Forecasting Under Question: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is facing scrutiny after its inflation predictions repeatedly over-estimated price growth, including a 0.7 percentage-point miss in Q1 - the biggest gap in nearly six years. That has prompted economists to question whether the central bank’s forecasting model remains reliable and whether policy decisions based on it may need recalibration. The critiques suggest RBI may need to revamp its approach amid unexpectedly low inflation prints.

SpiceJet Erases ₹442 Cr Debt With Carlyle Deal: SpiceJet has completed an equity share issue to Carlyle Aviation Partners, cutting ₹442.25 crore from its balance sheet. The airline will also get $79.6 million in maintenance reserves and $9.9 million in maintenance credits under the agreement.

Zomato And MMT Defy Brand Slowdown In India: Growth for India’s top 100 brands has cooled to 6%, down from 19% last year, according to Kantar’s BrandZ report. But companies like Zomato and MakeMyTrip are bucking the trend, Zomato nearly doubled its brand value YoY, while MMT surged by over 45%

PayMate Shutters Middle East Ops Amid Funding Collapse: Fintech company PayMate has shut its operations in the Middle East after its investor, Crimson Ventures, failed to transfer funds for over nine months. The company is now scrambling to raise $20 million as liquidity issues have led to unpaid salaries and key executive exits.