Nov 29: Swiggy vs Zepto, India’s Power Upgrade

Stranger Things Season 5 Vol. 1 has dropped, causing Netflix to crash faster than election promises. The real Upside Down is now your social media feed, a minefield of spoilers about Will Byers and Kali. If you haven’t watched it yet, congratulations, you’re now engaged in the world’s toughest event: dodging spoiler terrorism.

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 6 mins.

The Indian stock market ended flat with a negative bias, closing just shy of its all-time peak. The cautious session was driven by investor anticipation of impending interest rate cuts in the US and India.

The quick-commerce race in India has officially entered its most aggressive phase. With Swiggy and Zepto now planning to tap public markets for a combined ₹15,000 crore, the battle is no longer about 10-minute deliveries, it’s about survival, dominance, and convincing investors that this cash-hungry model can eventually break even.

A Market Growing Fast & Burning Faster: Blinkit sits comfortably on the throne today, controlling more than half the market. Swiggy’s Instamart and Zepto are locked in a fierce fight for the No. 2 slot, with promotions, fee waivers and “delivery free” tactics driving volumes. The sector itself is exploding: the quick-commerce market stood around ₹64,000 crore in FY25 and is expected to touch ₹2 lakh crore by FY28. But behind that surge lies an uncomfortable truth, the faster the market grows, the faster the money burns.

Swiggy & Zepto Need Capital: Swiggy is reportedly exploring a QIP of up to ₹10,000 crore, while Zepto has filed confidentially to raise about ₹4,000 crore. Both companies already have significant cash reserves, yet the burn rate remains alarming. Swiggy’s consolidated quick-commerce burn touched nearly ₹740 crore in the September quarter. Zepto’s monthly burn hovers around ₹500 crore. Average order values, roughly ₹520–530, simply do not support profitability unless volumes go through the roof. And because everyone is chasing volumes, the discount cycle refuses to break.

The Fundamental Question: Is This Model Sustainable? Even as orders rise, unit economics remain shaky. Public-market investors are far more demanding than private-equity backers, and they will want clarity on margins, path to profit, and how long the discount war will continue. With no clear winning formula - high-volume or high-basket strategy - the sector seems to be sprinting without catching its breath.

The Road Ahead: Quick-commerce isn’t going anywhere, but neither is the cash burn. The ₹15,000-crore fundraising will buy Swiggy and Zepto time not certainty. The next 12–18 months will reveal whether this industry can mature into a sustainable business or whether it remains dependent on endless capital injections.

India has crossed an important symbolic threshold in 2025. For the first time, the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index has classified India as a “major power,” placing it third globally, behind only the United States and China. While rankings often come and go, this one feels different partly because it arrives in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, a high-stakes mission that showcased India’s military and strategic maturity.

A New Ranking in a Shifting Asian Order: India’s overall score rose to 40 in the 2025 Asia Power Index, enough to push it past the “middle power” ceiling where it has hovered for years. This jump is not accidental. India made gains across economic capability, diplomatic influence, future resources, and crucially, military capability, where Operation Sindoor played a visible role. The mission’s precision, coordination, and strategic depth were factored into India’s improved standing, strengthening its image as a decisive power.

What Powered India’s Rise: Beyond military optics, India’s economic momentum has been a major driver. Foreign investment has grown as global supply chains diversify away from China, pushing India higher in categories like economic relationships and resilience. Diplomatically, India has deepened its presence in regional and global forums, improving its influence score. Cultural reach, tourism recovery, and a stronger global narrative, helped by India’s booming digital economy, have all enhanced its soft-power metrics.

But the Gaps Are Real: Despite the upgrade, the Index signals persistent weaknesses. India still ranks poorly in defence networks, far behind countries with stronger alliances. The “power gap” the difference between India’s potential and its realised influence also remains one of the widest in Asia. In simple terms, India now has the capability of a major power, but not yet the ecosystem of one.

The Road Ahead: India’s rise to the top three marks a shift in the Asian balance of power, but sustaining this position will require consistency in economic reforms, defence modernisation, and diplomatic engagement. Operation Sindoor may have helped India cross the line, but what it does next will determine whether this “major power” moment becomes permanent or remains a headline.

GDP Surges 8.2% in Q2: India’s economy grew by 8.2% in Q2 FY26, a six-quarter high driven by strong rural demand, government spending and early exports, even before full effects of recent GST cuts set in. Manufacturing and services posted robust growth, while agriculture and private capital investment remained lukewarm. The rebound suggests resilience in domestic consumption and government-led stimulus, positioning India well for the rest of the fiscal year.

Meesho IPO Hints at Strong Listing: E-commerce firm Meesho is launching an IPO of ₹5,421 crore and grey-market signals suggest the listing could debut around 30% above issue price. Such optimism reflects strong investor demand and market confidence in Meesho’s growth potential. At a time when retail and tech IPOs are watched closely, Meesho’s public listing looks poised for a favourable reception.

Amazon, Flipkart Move Into Lending: Amazon and Flipkart, long-time retail heavyweights — are now entering India’s consumer-loan space, aiming to challenge traditional banks. Amazon plans to revive small business lending via its NBFC arm, while Flipkart is prepping buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) and consumer-durable loan offerings. With the consumer loan market ballooning to about $212 billion by March 2025, digital platforms see vast headroom — but execution will be key.

Reliance Hits 52-Week High: Reliance Industries (RIL) shares jumped to a fresh 52-week high after global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating and projected a 14% upside. Jefferies outlined strong momentum across RIL’s retail, oil-to-chemicals, telecom and FMCG businesses with catalysts like festive demand, refining margins, and an upcoming IPO further boosting sentiment. With valuations still appearing attractive, the stock seems to be riding bullish investor expectations.

India–US Trade Deal: India and the United States are reportedly set to finalise the first tranche of their bilateral trade agreement by the end of 2025, according to Rajesh Agarwal, India’s Commerce Secretary. The agreement aims to address recent U.S. “reciprocal tariffs,” including those triggered by oil-import dynamics, which have hit Indian exports hard. Officials say most contentious issues have been resolved, and only final negotiations remain, making the deal’s closure a matter of “when, not if.” If completed, the deal could ease trade tensions, restore smoother market access, and potentially revive export-heavy sectors badly hit this year.