Sep 22: Trump’s $100K H-1B Shakeup, India’s Home Services Boom

Two Indian researchers, probably inspired by recurring nightmares from hostel days, just invented a UV-powered shoe rack to fight the smells. The innovation won the 2025 Ig Nobel prize - an award for ideas that sound like a joke until they actually work. Sharing the spotlight with this truly game-changing piece of hostel furniture was a study that found that alcohol can help people speak a foreign language better, and another that tracked the growth of a fingernail over 35 years. 10/10 would watch a shark tank version of this.

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 7 mins.

Trump’s Shock Move: The Trump administration has announced a one-time $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa petitions, a measure that could upend the U.S. technology sector’s access to skilled foreign talent. The policy, unveiled on September 20, 2025, was framed by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross as a step to “protect American jobs,” but it has sparked an immediate backlash from Silicon Valley, foreign governments, and Indian IT professionals who form the backbone of the program.

Panic Among Workers And Employers: Multinationals from Wall Street to Silicon Valley are bracing for disruption. Amazon, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Google, and Meta have advised employees on H-1B visas to avoid international travel to prevent complications. For Indian tech workers, the new cost for employers is more than an annual salary for many, creating financial and emotional strain. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has warned of “serious humanitarian consequences” for families, while South Korea also signaled concern.

Global Tech Sector, India Hit Hardest: The H-1B visa program has long served as a lifeline for U.S. tech companies struggling to find skilled workers domestically. Industry leaders argue the new fee will cripple innovation and burden smaller firms and startups. India accounts for 71% of H-1B visa holders, making it the most affected country by far, with China following at 12%. The announcement triggered a market shock, with shares of Indian IT giants Infosys, Wipro, and Cognizant falling between 2–5% in trading. Analysts warn that many professionals may now reconsider U.S. opportunities altogether, shifting global talent flows and possibly boosting India as an outsourcing hub.

A Familiar Immigration Crackdown: This latest decision fits into a broader Trump-era crackdown on both legal and illegal migration. Previous attempts to restrict H-1B visas were struck down in court, but the administration has steadily expanded restrictions ranging from $15,000 bonds on certain visas to expanded travel bans covering nearly 20 nations. Officials clarified the $100,000 fee will apply only to new visa petitions filed after September 21, 2025, with renewals and current holders unaffected.

Economic and Diplomatic Fallout: The ripple effects are already visible. Airlines anticipate weaker demand on U.S. – India routes, with some carriers considering capacity cuts. Outsourcing firms in India may ironically benefit if U.S. companies decide to relocate jobs offshore to offset rising labor costs. At a diplomatic level, the move risks worsening U.S. – India ties, which are already strained by trade tariffs and visa curbs.

The Take: The Trump administration insists the policy protects American workers while generating billions in revenue. But critics argue it risks choking off global talent pipelines that have long fueled U.S. competitiveness. For thousands of Indian professionals and their families, the announcement represents not just a financial hurdle but a deep uncertainty about their future in America.

Booming Online Home Services Market: India’s online home services sector is poised for rapid expansion, projected to grow at a CAGR of 18–22% and to reach Rs 85–88 billion by FY2030. Rising urban demand for speed, convenience, and reliability (values already shaped by the success of quick commerce) is driving this momentum. Yet, the overall home services market, valued at Rs 5,100–5,210 billion in FY25, remains predominantly offline. Online penetration is still under 1% of net transaction value, with the digital segment contributing only Rs 41–43 billion. Even then the sector’s rapid growth signals a shift in how urban Indians manage household needs.

Bridging Informal Help, Digital Platforms: Drawing parallels with quick commerce, which conditioned consumers to expect deliveries in minutes, instant home services aim to provide on-demand household support. This model bridges the gap between informal domestic help and structured digital platforms, offering consumers greater trust and accountability. Currently, India’s eight largest cities account for nearly 90% of online home services demand, indicating the early adoption of this trend in urban hubs. Four key factors underpin this growth: the cultural expectation for instant gratification, post-COVID focus on trust and safety, rapid urbanisation, and consumers’ willingness to pay a premium for convenience.

Challenges: Platforms face operational hurdles, including managing high-frequency, low-value tasks and ensuring a stable supply of service professionals in dense urban areas. If platforms can crack real-time fulfilment, instant home services could become a daily habit for urban India.

The Starting: Since its 2021 debut, Shark Tank India has become a marquee platform for startups, blending investment pitches with prime-time entertainment. Over four seasons, it has spotlighted hundreds of entrepreneurial journeys and sparked a national conversation about innovation and business acumen.

Walking Away From The Money: For many founders, saying no to a deal is about retaining control, not just finances. Of 34 Season 4 startups, only 11 deals closed, 8 remain in process, and 15 fell through—often because founders backed out due to royalty clauses, shareholder agreements, or delays that made funding irrelevant.

Savar Malhotra withdrew over restrictive expense approvals, Dhruv Kohli stepped away after his valuation soared, and Mudgar Club’s founders left when delayed due diligence made funding unnecessary. Even when deals don’t close, the publicity is often worth crores, boosting revenue, credibility, and connections far beyond just funding.

The Marketing Payoff: Even when deals fall through, the publicity is invaluable—founders often see surges in revenue, website traffic, and distribution interest. Experts estimate a 20-minute Shark Tank appearance is worth crores in advertising, with the real win being the credibility and visibility that attract new customers, investors, and partners.

Sugar Industry Meltdown: India's sugar industry is facing a potential ₹40,000 crore meltdown despite the government's ethanol blending push. While India hit a 20% ethanol blending target in 2025, the blend is now dominated by grain-based ethanol at 72% market share, leaving sugarcane with only 27%. The industry, which has seen ₹40,000 crore in investments, is struggling with frozen ethanol prices and a 17% increase in the price paid to sugarcane farmers squeezing returns for mills that are selling sugar at a price of ₹40-41/kg against a frozen Minimum Support Price of ₹31 since 2019. This imbalance is leading to rising arrears and financial stress, particularly for MSMEs, and has prompted analysts to urge a price hike to avert a wider crisis.

GST Haircut: Effective September 22, India's GST regime has been overhauled with a simplified two-tier structure of 5% and 18%. This will make a wide range of goods and services cheaper, a move the government expects will inject ₹2 lakh crore into the economy. Key changes include a reduction in items like ghee, butter, TVs, ACs, and medicines. Cement tax has fallen to 18%, and services like salons and gyms are now taxed at 5%. The new structure aims to boost consumption, especially during the festive season.

India-Oman Trade Pact: India and Oman are set to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with talks concluded and legal formalities underway since negotiations began in November 2023. The pact will slash tariffs on most goods and ease services trade, expanding economic ties beyond energy. Oman is India’s third-largest export market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with bilateral trade at $10.61 billion in 2024-25. Additionally, over 6,000 India–Omani joint ventures operate with investments of $776 million, the agreement further strengthens these partnerships.

UAE Investment In India: Following the 13th India-UAE High-Level Joint Task Force on Investments, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced that UAE investors are keen to make "much larger" fresh bets on India, targeting sectors such as infrastructure, data centres, banking, startups, and green energy. UAE, already among India's top 5-6 investors with a $24 billion FDI since 2000, has allotted land for Bharat Mart, a marketplace for Indian exporters set to be ready by 2027. The talks also covered collaborations in renewables, shipbuilding, retail, pharma, and infrastructure planning under the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) project.

The Big Leap: On September 10, Oracle stunned Wall Street by adding $255 billion to its market cap in hours—a 36% surge, joining Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft in the $250B club. For context, that’s more than double TCS’s entire value and briefly made Larry Ellison the richest person in the world.

What Sparked The Frenzy: It wasn’t earnings. Net profit met expectations, while revenue missed slightly. It was actually Oracle’s plan to grow cloud infrastructure revenue 14x by FY30, from $10.2B to $144B. Multi-year AI contracts drove remaining performance obligations (RPO) up 359% to $455B. Coupled with multi-year, multi-billion-dollar cloud contracts, Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) ballooned to $455 billion, up 359% year-on-year. Analysts now see Oracle as a possible “fourth hyperscaler” due to its cost advantages and rapid market share gains.

Risks Behind The Hype: Much of the backlog is tied to a $300B OpenAI deal, raising concentration risk. OpenAI itself is cash-burning and VC-dependent. Oracle’s cloud is just 17% of revenue, with other segments growing slowly; the stock now trades at 69x earnings, well above fundamentals.

The Bigger AI Picture: Oracle’s surge mirrors the AI boom—since 2020, the top 10 AI stocks have added $18T in value, 60% of S&P 500 gains. The “Big 5”—Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft—have invested $586B in AI infrastructure in three years, with another $860B expected by 2027. Tech capex is now so large it outpaces US consumer spending—AI has become too big to fail.

Big Money Surge in AI: Alibaba is now investing over $1 billion to embed AI across its cloud, logistics, and entertainment businesses, aiming to boost efficiency and create new revenue streams. This strategic shift reflects Alibaba's response to intensifying competition and the rapid evolution of the AI sector. OpenAI is spearheading a $1.3 trillion surge in private AI startup valuations, with its own value near $300 billion and rivals like Anthropic, xAI, and Databricks riding the wave—though questions linger about long-term sustainability. The boom reflects growing investor confidence in AI technologies, though questions remain about sustainability and long-term market dynamics.

Trump Seeks A 'Golden Share' in U.S. Steel Deal: President Donald Trump is reportedly seeking a "golden share" in U.S. Steel, a special stock class that would grant him significant influence over the company's strategic decisions, including mergers and acquisitions. If successful, the deal could reshape American manufacturing sector and signal a new phase in Trump's business endeavors.

TikTok Deal Ensures U.S. Control Amidst China Talks: The Trump administration is close to a deal with China to keep TikTok running in the U.S., with Oracle and other American firms set to oversee data and security and Americans holding six of seven board seats. While both sides say progress is being made, unresolved issues remain over the precise ownership structure of TikTok, how much control China will retain, and what Beijing gets in backing out of the deal. China has reiterated its position on TikTok's future in the U.S., emphasizing respect for corporate decisions and adherence to market rules and Chinese laws.

From Taunts To Triumph: Minakshi Hooda, daughter of an auto-rickshaw driver, overcame poverty and dismissive taunts to win gold in the women’s 48kg category at the World Boxing Championships in Liverpool. Her triumph, alongside other medalists, marks a major milestone for India’s women’s boxing team.

Radisson Expands in East: Radisson Hotel Group is expanding its presence in eastern India, with three new properties being developed in Bihar. The company is leveraging government incentives for tourism, especially in the Buddhist sector, as it continues to grow its portfolio of over 200 hotels across the country. 

New BCCI President: Former Delhi captain Mithun Manhas is set to become the first uncapped player to lead the BCCI. He filed his nomination on Sunday, with a formal announcement expected at the Annual General Meeting on September 28.

Indian ECB Filings: Indian companies filed to raise $3.32 billion through External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) in July 2025. The majority of this, $3.22 billion, was raised via the automatic route, while $100 million was raised through the approval route. Among the large filings, Credila sought $650 million for on-lending purposes, and Reliance Power filed for $500 million for working capital and general corporate purposes.

THAT’S ALL FOR TODAY!

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