Sep 23: West Recognizes Palestine, Adani’s Promising Next Chapter

Today we had to start with a photo. Why? because its epic. An SUV tumbled into a (very large) pothole near Patna Junction, Bihar but a very loyal car owner insisted it’s not the government’s fault but rather a grand conspiracy to defame it before election time. We all deserve a friend who stands up for us like this. Big shoutout to whoever clicked the masterpiece though, whether drone operator or electric pole-climbing prodigy.

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 7 mins.

The Indian stock market indices ended significantly lower on Monday after US President Donald Trump's new H-1B visa fees rule triggered panic selling among investors, especially IT shareholders.

What Happened: In a dramatic escalation of his immigration crackdown, President Donald Trump on September 19, 2025, signed a proclamation imposing a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visa applications. The White House framed it as a move to ensure only “truly extraordinary” talent enters the U.S. while protecting American jobs. Renewals and current visa holders are not affected, but the announcement sent immediate shockwaves through the tech and finance sectors.

Panic, Confusion: Chaos erupted across Wall Street banks and tech giants including Microsoft, Amazon, and JPMorgan. Employees abroad scrambled to return before the new rules kicked in, while HR teams and immigration lawyers worked overtime to interpret the proclamation. Even flights were caught in the frenzy - one Emirates plane was delayed for hours as H-1B holders debated whether they could safely re-enter the U.S.

India Feels The Heat: Indian IT professionals, who make up the largest share of H-1B holders, were hardest hit. Markets reacted instantly: Tech Mahindra (-6%), LTI Mindtree (-5.6%), Persistent Systems (-5.5%), and Infosys (-3.9%) led declines, dragging the BSE IT index down by 2.2%.

Who’s Most Exposed? Infosys tops the list, with 3.3% of employees on H-1B visas and over 11% of revenue tied to them. Hexaware follows at 10.4% exposure, while TCS, despite its larger workforce, has 7.7% dependency. Nuvama estimates Infosys may have 12,000–15,000 H-1B workers, compared to 10,000 – 12,000 at TCS.

The Bigger Picture: For Indian IT firms, the $100,000 fee threatens profitability. With margins of $15,000–20,000 per onsite worker at risk, companies may rethink their models, hiring locals, subcontracting, near-shoring to Mexico or Canada, or bringing work back to India.

America’s Loss, Europe’s And China Gain? As the U.S. tightens doors, Europe could see opportunities. Countries like the U.K., Germany, France, and the Netherlands are exploring incentives for skilled workers. Yet Europe’s tech ecosystem is smaller, slower, and less dynamic than the U.S., and anti-immigration sentiment could dampen potential gains. China is rolling out a “K visa” for young science and tech professionals with streamlined entry. While unlikely to draw significant Indian talent, it signals a global scramble for skills as U.S. policies grow protectionist.

India’s Potential Windfall: The fee may accelerate a reverse brain drain, with U.S.-trained engineers and researchers returning home to contribute to AI, SaaS, and deep-tech startups. Early signs show increased applications from professionals seeking Indian opportunities, creating a surge of talent for the domestic ecosystem. Executives however warn that India must move beyond services-led outsourcing toward deep-tech and innovation-driven growth to take advantage of this opportunity. Investments in AI, research-led startups, and original product development could be catalyzed by returning talent, positioning India as a global innovation hub.

SEBI Clears The Air: Following SEBI’s dismissal of Hindenburg’s allegations, Gautam Adani signaled a renewed focus on transparency, innovation, and long-term value creation. The January 2023 report had accused the conglomerate of accounting irregularities and opaque offshore dealings, triggering market losses exceeding USD 150 billion. Adani called the allegations a “targeted, multidimensional assault.”

Future Priorities: With the allegations cleared, Adani has pushed the group to accelerate innovation in energy, logistics, and infrastructure, embedding integrity and transparency as core pillars. He urged employees to embrace transformation, stressing that the company must shape its future proactively.

Market Surge Post-Clearance: The group’s market capitalization surged by ₹1.7 lakh crore in two days, crossing ₹15 lakh crore, driven by SEBI’s clearance. Adani Power, Total Gas, Green Energy, and Energy Solutions led the gains, with Adani Power jumping 35% after a 1:5 stock split and a bullish Morgan Stanley note. Analysts are now focusing on fundamentals and long-term growth, with Jefferies forecasting a 27% upside for Adani Green Energy based on strong performance and growth potential.

Government Divestment Push: Divestment Secretary Arunish Chawla stated that India is planning approximately six minority stake sales and one to two strategic sales in state-run firms this year. The government is also looking to launch an IPO from a natural resources public sector undertaking (PSU) or one of its subsidiaries, with potential candidates including the green energy units of ONGC or NHPC.

AI Widening Wage Gap: According to Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran, salary growth in India has been lagging behind corporate profitability, a gap he believes could widen due to the increased adoption of AI. Nageswaran noted that while the GST 2.0 rate cuts and a government tax relief package are expected to boost fiscal year 2026 GDP towards the upper end of the 6.3–6.8% range, the issue of wage growth remains a challenge.

Orbital Bodyguards: India is developing "bodyguard satellites" to protect its spacecraft, a move prompted by a near-miss incident in mid-2024 when a satellite from a neighbouring country came dangerously close to an ISRO satellite. This initiative is part of a larger ₹270 billion ($3 billion) plan to enhance India's space security, which includes launching about 50 surveillance satellites.

Uranium Unrest In Meghalaya: The Central government is facing growing backlash in Meghalaya for pushing uranium mining in the Domiasiat–Wahkaji region. An Environment Ministry memorandum exempts atomic minerals from public consultation, effectively sidelining tribal consent. Khasi groups, who have opposed mining since the 1980s, cite environmental risks and invoke Fifth–Sixth Schedule protections and the Niyamgiri precedent on community consent.

Diamonds Losing Profit: India’s polished diamond exports are projected to drop by 15-20% to about $11 billion in FY26. This decline is largely attributed to a new 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is the world's largest market. The industry, already operating on thin, single-digit margins, is also facing stiff competition from cheaper lab-grown diamonds, on top of weak demand from China.

Insulin Opportunity: Indian drugmakers are set to seize a significant ₹600–800 crore insulin cartridge market opportunity as Novo Nordisk phases out its Penfill and FlexPen products. Companies like Eris, Wockhardt, and Lupin are prepping to fill the gap.