Aug 5: Trump changes mood, big plans for homemade semiconductors

Good morning. In a move that is surprising to no-one US President Donald Trump has yet again changed his mind, and in a post on Truth Social yesterday - threatened to further increase tariffs on India over purchase and sale of “massive” amounts of Russian oil. The Ministry of External Affairs channelled their inner US Fed and disputed the misleading claim, reminding the Nobel Peace Prize nominee that it was actually US that had actively encouraged India to import Russian crude when the Ukraine-Russia conflict had broken out. At this rate, the only consistent thing about US policy might be its … inconsistency.

Now, let’s get into the Dispatch! 🚀

Today’s reading time is 6 mins.

Dalal Street saw a green trend on Monday, as both Sensex and Nifty gained significantly. The upward trend was mainly due to strong sectoral performance, positive global cues (poor US jobs report) for a US Fed rate cut next month, and optimism ahead of the RBI's policy meeting.  

Over the last five fiscal years, the landscape of Indian advertising has undergone a dramatic shift, with digital marketing rising steadily as traditional media loses ground. The advertising industry has officially crossed the ₹1 lakh crore spend milestone, with digital media accounting for an incredible 46% share in FY 2025, according to a new report.

Changing landscape: Back in FY 2020, traditional media (TV, print, radio) commanded nearly two-thirds of the total ad spend; however, this has now decreased dramatically. Conversely, fast forward to 2025, and digital advertising has nearly doubled its share, from 25% to 46%, reflecting a major realignment in how brands connect with audiences. This gap between traditional and digital media is expected to widen, with the latter likely to grow 9-11% while traditional media flatlines.

Driving the digital eyeballs:

What’s great about digital? While traditional media once offered unmatched reach, digital ads now bring laser-focused targeting thanks to powerful analytics. Businesses tailor campaigns to specific audiences, track performance in real time, and optimise ad spends for maximum return on investment. With AI and automation increasingly integrated into ad tech, the efficiency and creativity of campaigns are only expected to grow.

India is stepping up to stake its claim in the global chip game. According to the central government, the country’s semiconductor market could grow to nearly $100 billion by 2030, aligning with forecasts that peg the global market to hit $1 trillion in the same period. This signals India’s ambition to emerge as a key global producer in the semiconductor space.

Why do semiconductors matter? Often dubbed the “brains” of electronics, semiconductors are essential to everything from smartphones and laptops to automobiles, defence systems, and medical equipment. They power the digital infrastructure and AI technologies shaping our future.

Why India could succeed - people paisa and precious (metals): India offers a strong foundation for semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to its abundant natural resources, including essential minerals, gases, and chemicals required for chip fabrication. The country also boasts a deep pool of tech talent, with engineers, scientists, and software developers who are already in demand globally. Complementing these strengths is a policy push from the government through initiatives like the Semicon India Programme and Production-Linked Incentives (PLIs), aimed at attracting global investment and building robust domestic manufacturing capabilities.

Despite the advantages, the road ahead still has a few challenges:

Big Picture: India’s chip dream is bold, necessary, and increasingly urgent but requires deep collaboration, significant investment, and long-term strategy.

My private Nuclear energy: India is now letting private firms into the nuclear power sector, aiming to scale capacity from the current 8.8 GW to a massive 100 GW by 2047 in an ambitious overhaul.  

Who’s got oil? With Russian oil discounts shrinking (and attention to Oil purchases rising) - Indian Oil Corporation is looking elsewhere, buying 7 million barrels of crude from the US, Canada, and West Asia to keep the fuel flowing. The move signals a major shift as state refiners slowly hit the brakes on Russian crude oil. 

SEBI’s derivative reforms: After Jane Street saga, SEBI is calling for a "structural reform" of the derivatives market. The goal is to kick out unfair practices and protect small investors.  After banning the US firm for alleged manipulation, the regulator says more needs to be done to clean up the F&O space.  

In a new approach to the eternal fight against poaching, South African scientists are making rhino horns radioactive by injecting the horns with radioactive isotopes. They’e calling it the Rhisotope Project - the plan is incredible so we’ll forgive them for the …. wild name. Anyway, these isotopes are harmless for the animals but can be recognized by radiation detectors at airports and borders, leading to the arrest of poachers and traffickers. Tests found that these injected horns could be detected inside full 40-foot shipping containers.

Poaching reality: The International Union for Conservation of Nature estimates that the global rhino population at the beginning of the 20th century has reduced by 95% due to poaching and continued demand for rhino horns on the black market. Only 27,000 rhinos remain globally. South Africa has the largest population - an estimated 16,000 rhinos, but the country experiences high levels of poaching with about 500 rhinos killed for their horns every year.

Rhino horns on the black market: Rhino horn is mostly used as a traditional medicine in Vietnam to reduce hangovers, detoxify the body, and reduce high fever (despite no scientific evidence supporting these benefits). A large quantity of rhino horn is supplied to the art and antiques market in China. In the black market, rhino horn prices can fetch up to US$400,000 per kg for Asian rhino horns and US$20,000 per kg for African rhino horns.

Big Picture: This high-tech solution is just one battle in a massive global war against a ruthless, multi-billion-dollar business, in the same league as drug and arms trafficking. It’s a crisis fuelling organized crime and putting iconic species on a poachers' hit list, including elephants, rhinos, pangolins, tigers, and great apes. 

Global fightback: The world is retaliating with brains and brawn. The fightback includes a high-tech arsenal, from drones and AI-powered cameras creating 'virtual fences', to empowering local communities to reduce the economic incentive for poaching. Simultaneously, global programs work to dismantle criminal supply chains, push for tougher laws, and educate consumers to kill the demand. 

Australia opens the door: Australia is raising its foreign student cap by 9% to 295,000 for 2026, aiming to stabilise its AUD 51 billion education sector while managing housing pressures. The move gives priority to applicants from Southeast Asia to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties. In 2023, nearly 600,000 student visas were granted as international enrolments surged post-COVID. Public backlash over “out of control” numbers led to a 270,000 cap for 2025, which has helped bring volumes under control. China and India remain the top source countries.

Boeing workers strike: Over 3,200 Boeing defence workers are on strike after rejecting a contract that included a 20% wage increase and a $5,000 bonus. The union members in Missouri and Illinois, who build jets like the F-15, walked out citing concerns over wages and working conditions. This is the work group’s first strike since 1996.

Pakistan's refugee crisis: Pakistan has resumed the forced deportation of 1.4 million Afghan refugees whose legal residency cards expired in June. The move has drawn sharp criticism from the UN, which warns that such a large-scale repatriation could destabilise the region.  

Delta Airlines’ pricing: After facing backlash from lawmakers, Delta has clarified it will not use AI to set personalised ticket prices based on individual customer data.    

WhatsApp crackdown: WhatsApp went on a banning spree, removing over 98 lakh Indian accounts in June to curb misuse. Nearly 19.8 lakh of these were axed proactively, without waiting for user reports. 

Indian army’s tech upgrade: After "Operation Sindoor", the Indian Army is getting a major tech overhaul, making drones a standard weapon at the battalion level. It's also raising 30 light commando battalions and new independent "Rudra brigades" with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. 

Peacekeepers honoured: In a moment of pride, 838 Indian peacekeepers, including 12 women serving in South Sudan, received UN medals for their service. They were recognised for protecting civilians and guarding humanitarian aid in the conflict-torn region. 

Archery league: The Archery Association of India is launching its first-ever franchise-based Archery League this October. It’ll be an 11-day event at the Yamuna Sports complex in Delhi, featuring top men and women recurve and compound archers from around the globe.  

Narrowest test win: India clinched a nail-biting victory against England by just 6 runs in the final Test, levelling the series at a thrilling 2-2. It was a heart-stopper of a match and India's narrowest-ever win by margin of runs in a Test match. Mohammed Siraj was the hero of the match, with a fiery 5-wicket haul on the final day, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. 

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